US & Global ETF Momentum

After every US trading session, prices, returns, risk, liquidity and fund facts (expense ratio, fund size, yield, inception) are refreshed. Two independent checks run before anything is published:

• Accuracy audit — every ETF is checked for valid prices, the price sitting inside its 52-week range, recomputed returns, realistic volatility and drawdown, expense ratios in a valid range, a complete weekly history, and day-over-day continuity against the previous publish. If any critical check fails, the update is held back and the previous day’s data stays online.
• Engine check — when the page loads, it recomputes every momentum mode against the S&P 500 and compares it with the published reference. The result is shown at the top of the page.

Prices are end-of-day in US dollars and total-return (dividends reinvested) for returns and momentum. Always confirm the live price on your broker before placing an order.

Start with what the fund owns, then its strategy:

• Equity: large-cap, mid-cap, small-cap, flexi-cap, multi-cap, large & mid-cap, focused, value/contra, sector/thematic and ELSS funds. ELSS has a three-year lock-in for each purchase.
• Debt and money market: overnight, liquid, duration-based, corporate bond, banking & PSU, gilt, credit-risk and floating-rate funds.
• Hybrid: conservative/aggressive hybrid, balanced advantage, equity savings, arbitrage and multi-asset allocation funds; their equity/debt mix differs.
• Passive and other structures: index funds and ETFs track a benchmark; funds of funds hold other funds. Gold and international funds add commodity or overseas exposure. Retirement and children’s funds may have lock-ins.

Direct/regular describes the distribution route; growth/IDCW describes the payout option. These do not change the fund’s underlying asset category. Check the scheme document for its actual mandate. AMFI: fund types ↗

Risk varies by the actual portfolio; a category name is not a fixed risk rating.

• Equity: market falls and valuation risk; mid/small caps add liquidity risk. Focused, sector and thematic funds concentrate exposure; factor strategies can underperform for years.
• Debt: interest-rate, issuer default/downgrade and liquidity risks. Longer duration means larger rate sensitivity; credit-risk funds accept more credit exposure. Gilt funds avoid corporate credit risk but can fall when yields rise.
• Overnight/liquid: generally lower rate sensitivity, but losses, liquidity or settlement problems remain possible.
• Hybrid/multi-asset: equity, debt and commodity risks follow the mix; “balanced advantage” does not guarantee capital.
• Arbitrage: changing spreads, liquidity, execution and debt-sleeve risks; short-term returns can be negative.
• Gold/international: commodity-price or overseas-market risk; international funds also have currency and country risks.
• Index funds/ETFs/FoFs: inherit underlying risks; tracking differences and layered costs matter. ETFs also have bid–ask spreads and premium/discount risk.

Read each scheme’s latest SEBI Riskometer (Low through Very High), portfolio and Scheme Information Document. No mutual fund category guarantees returns. AMFI: risks ↗ · SEBI: Riskometer ↗

A bond is a loan you make to an issuer, such as a government or company. The terms specify interest (the coupon), repayment and maturity. A zero-coupon bond pays no regular interest and is typically issued below its repayment value.

A bond’s market price can rise or fall before maturity. The coupon is not your total return: purchase price, sale/redemption price, costs and tax also matter. Repayment depends on the issuer meeting its obligations. A bond fund holds a portfolio of debt securities; buying its units does not promise repayment of your investment on a fixed maturity date. SEBI: understanding bonds ↗

Bonds can be classified in several overlapping ways:

• Issuer: central-government securities, State Development Loans, municipal bonds, and corporate/bank/PSU bonds. PSU ownership alone is not an explicit government guarantee.
• Interest: fixed-rate, floating-rate, or zero-coupon.
• Protection and repayment: secured/unsecured, senior/subordinated, callable/puttable, and convertible bonds.
• Special terms: perpetual/AT1 bank bonds may have no fixed maturity and loss-absorption clauses; green bonds describe the use of proceeds, not a safety guarantee.

One bond can belong to several groups. Read its offer document, credit rating, repayment priority, maturity and exit terms. RBI: bank capital bond loss absorption ↗ · NISM: bond features ↗ · Investor.gov: corporate bond structures ↗

• Government securities/SDLs: domestic sovereign credit backing, but interest-rate, inflation and sale-before-maturity price/liquidity risks remain. Long-duration bonds usually move more when yields change.
• Corporate, bank, PSU and municipal: issuer default/downgrade and liquidity risk. A high rating is an assessment, not a repayment guarantee; secured does not mean instant or full recovery.
• Floating-rate: income falls when the reference rate falls; credit and liquidity risks remain.
• Zero-coupon/long maturity: no regular income and potentially large price sensitivity.
• Callable: early repayment can force reinvestment at lower yields.
• Subordinated, perpetual and AT1: lower repayment priority; issue terms can permit coupon cancellation, principal write-down or conversion.
• Convertible: credit risk plus equity/conversion risk. Foreign-currency bonds also add exchange-rate and country risks.

Tax-free, listed or green labels do not remove these risks. Check the exact issue terms rather than assigning one risk score to every bond of a type. SEBI: bond risks ↗ · RBI: government securities ↗

Market buy/sell: seeks execution at the available market prices. The price is not guaranteed; a large or illiquid order can fill at several prices or remain partly unfilled.

Limit buy: buy only at your limit price or lower. Limit sell: sell only at your limit price or higher. For example, a ₹100 buy limit caps the purchase price at ₹100; a ₹110 sell limit sets a minimum sale price of ₹110. Execution is not guaranteed, even if a quoted price touches your limit; available quantity and queue priority matter.

Validity and permitted order types depend on the exchange and broker. ETFs trade through exchange orders; ordinary mutual fund purchases/redemptions use applicable NAV and cut-off rules.

Here, regular simulated ETF trades use a session-close model; dip trades use timestamped model prices. The order book identifies the simulated instruction and any limit price separately from the execution price. Historical classifications are labelled. These are educational records, not broker-confirmed orders. NSE: order conditions ↗ · Investor.gov: order types ↗

• ▲ Accelerating — beating the benchmark and gaining strength: the strongest current trend, though it can be late in the move; momentum investors often spread purchases and watch for a shift to Decelerating.
• ◤ Recovering — still behind but improving: an early turn with higher reward and higher risk; momentum investors often wait for two or three weeks of confirmation.
• ◢ Decelerating — still ahead but fading: momentum investors often hold or trim rather than add new money.
• ▼ Underperforming — behind and weakening: the weakest mode for momentum.

Modes describe past relative performance. Broad core ETFs can be bought regularly whatever their mode.

Use the S&P 500 for US equity ETFs, the Nasdaq-100 to judge growth and technology funds, the Russell 2000 for small caps, MSCI ACWI for a global view, Developed ex-US or Emerging Markets for country funds, US Aggregate Bond for bond ETFs and Gold for precious metals. Comparing a fund with its own parent market shows whether it leads within that market.

Four checks cross-examine each mode: whether the ETF actually beat the benchmark over 13 weeks on the side its RS-Ratio shows, whether its last 4 weeks of relative return improved on the 4 weeks before (matching RS-Momentum), whether it trades at least $10 million a day, and whether its reading sits outside the noise band. High = all four agree, Medium = three, Low = two or fewer.

S (short term) compares price with its 10-week average and the 13-week return; M (medium) with its 26-week average and 26-week return; L (long) with its 52-week average, whether that average is rising, and the 1-year return. Green = positive, red = negative, grey = mixed.

Roles: Core (broad markets — most long-term money), Factor (growth, value, dividend, momentum, quality, low volatility), Sector, Thematic, Country, Bond, Commodity and Digital (spot bitcoin and ether). Sector, thematic, country and digital funds are usually held as smaller satellites.

At least 20 weeks of clean trading history are needed. Recently launched funds are listed but not classified, to avoid misleading signals.

• Remittances for investment above ₹10 lakh a financial year attract 20% tax collected at source (TCS), adjustable against your income tax or refundable when you file.
• Report foreign holdings in Schedule FA of your income-tax return every year, even with no income from them.
• Add surcharge and 4% cess. Rules change with each Union Budget — confirm with a tax professional.

For people who are neither US citizens nor US residents, US-listed ETFs are US-situs assets. If their total value exceeds US$60,000 at death, the estate can owe US estate tax of up to 40%, and India has no estate-tax treaty with the US. Investors with larger holdings often consider Ireland-domiciled UCITS ETFs listed in London, which are generally outside US estate tax and suffer 15% US dividend withholding at fund level. Japan’s treaty with the US provides some relief for Japan residents. Take professional advice for large portfolios.

Indian-listed international ETFs and fund-of-funds need no LRS remittance, but industry overseas limits often push international ETFs to trade well above their NAV, and new investments can be paused. US-listed ETFs trade close to their value at very low cost, but need a remittance, US-dollar exposure and extra tax reporting. Compare both on the India ETF Momentum page.

End-of-day closes, refreshed after the US market close every trading day. The latest week runs up to the date shown at the top. Fund facts are refreshed daily and can lag the issuer by a few days.

Each plan starts from an asset mix for your goal and risk level — equity, US investment-grade bonds, gold and Treasury bills. Equity is split between US large and total-market funds, US small and mid caps, developed markets outside the US, emerging markets and, for goals of 3 years or more, a small factor satellite.

Every slot has a short list of ETFs doing the same job. Each must pass up to nine checks: in today’s audited data, at least 3 years of returns, traded at least $20 million a day, fund size of at least $1 billion, expense ratio under the slot’s cap, 1-year return close to similar ETFs, volatility no more than 1.3 times similar ETFs, a clean year of weekly prices and, for the factor slot, an Accelerating mode against the S&P 500 with Medium or High confidence. Survivors are ranked on cost 35% · liquidity 25% · size 20% · track record 10% · consistency with peers 10%.

Market-condition overlay: for goals of 3 years or more, when the S&P 500’s long-term trend turns negative (below a falling 52-week average with a negative 1-year return), 10 points move from equity into bonds, trimmed evenly across the equity slots. The model allocation moves back when the trend recovers; no real money is transferred. The “Why these ETFs” tab shows every check with its figure.

No. It replays how the exact model mix moved over the last 60 weeks of audited weekly prices, rebalanced to its target weights each week, and compares it with the S&P 500. Past behaviour over a short window is an illustration only and does not predict future returns.

NISA (少額投資非課税制度) is Japan's tax-free investment account for residents aged 18 or over. Since 2024 it has a growth investment quota of ¥2.4 million a year and a tsumitate quota of ¥1.2 million a year, with a lifetime limit of ¥18 million (at most ¥12 million in the growth quota) and no end date for the tax-free period. US-listed ETFs can be bought only within the growth quota, through a Japanese securities company that offers them. Gains and dividends are then free of Japanese tax.

Yes. The US withholds 10% on dividends for Japan residents under the Japan–US tax treaty, and inside NISA that tax cannot be credited back because no Japanese tax is due. ETFs that pay most of their return as dividends — bond and T-bill ETFs — lose the most this way, so some investors keep them in a specific account (特定口座), where the foreign tax credit can be claimed, and use NISA for growth-oriented equity ETFs. Losses inside NISA also cannot be offset against other gains.

The simulator's ETFs are US-listed, so in NISA they all fall in the growth investment quota (up to ¥2.4 million a year). The tsumitate quota is for designated investment trusts — many Japanese index funds track the same broad indices (for example the S&P 500 or MSCI ACWI) and can be bought there in yen, without currency conversion. Choose "Japan resident (NISA)" under "Where you are tax-resident" in the simulator to see the related notes.

For US citizens, green-card holders and US tax residents: gains on ETFs held more than one year are taxed at 0%, 15% or 20% by income, shorter holdings at ordinary income rates; the 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax applies above US$200,000 (single) or US$250,000 (married filing jointly); qualified dividends get the long-term rates; and most states add their own income tax. The wash-sale rule disallows a loss if a substantially identical security is bought within 30 days before or after the sale.

For US tax you are a US person: you file Form W-9 (no withholding) and pay US tax on gains and dividends as above. India taxes non-residents only on income arising in India, so US-listed ETF gains are not taxed in India. Your Indian accounts may need to be reported on an FBAR and Form 8938, and Indian mutual funds are usually PFICs with heavy US reporting — one reason US-based NRIs often prefer US-listed ETFs. Several Indian fund houses do not accept US-resident investors at all.

Form W-8BEN tells your broker that you are not a US person and claims your country's tax-treaty rate on US dividends (for example 25% for India, 10% for Japan, instead of 30%). It stays valid until the end of the third calendar year after you sign it — most brokers remind you to renew. US persons file Form W-9 instead.

Generally no. Gains on US-listed ETFs sold by non-resident investors are usually not taxed by the US (exceptions include people present in the US for 183 days or more in the year, or gains connected with a US business). Your country of residence taxes them under its own rules — for example India (12.5% after 24 months, otherwise slab rate) or Japan (20.315% outside NISA, tax-free inside NISA).

Resident Indians report every foreign holding in Schedule FA — for the calendar year (January–December) ending in the financial year — even if nothing was sold. Dividends go in Schedule FSI, the US tax withheld in Schedule TR, and Form 67 must be filed before the return to claim the foreign tax credit. Capital gains are reported in Schedule CG. Missing foreign assets can lead to penalties under the Black Money Act, so many investors use a chartered accountant for their first year.

EU and UK rules (PRIIPs) require a key information document for funds sold to retail investors, and most US ETF issuers do not publish one, so EU and UK brokers usually block US-listed ETFs for retail clients. Ireland- or Luxembourg-domiciled UCITS ETFs that track the same indices are the usual alternative.

No. VilfinTV is a free educational platform. It is not registered with SEBI (India) as an investment adviser or research analyst, not registered with the US SEC as an investment adviser or broker-dealer and not a FINRA member, and not registered as a Financial Instruments Business Operator with Japan's Financial Services Agency. Nothing on this page is investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities. See "Important disclaimers" at the bottom of the page.

Yes, under the RBI's Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS), which allows up to US$250,000 per person per financial year. The usual route: open an international brokerage account (or a GIFT City / NSE IX account), complete its KYC with PAN and address proof, send money from your bank under LRS (Form A2, purpose code for overseas portfolio investment), and buy in US dollars. You cannot use a credit card or borrowed money for LRS investments. Holdings must be reported in your Indian tax return (Schedule FA), and foreign tax paid is claimed with Form 67.

Tax collected at source (20% of the amount above ₹10 lakh remitted for investment in a financial year) is not an extra tax: it appears in your Form 26AS / AIS and is adjusted against your income tax, or refunded when you file your return. It does tie up cash until then. Remittances up to ₹10 lakh a year have no TCS.

Your return in rupees is roughly the ETF's dollar return plus the change in the US dollar against the rupee. Over long periods the rupee has tended to weaken against the dollar, which has added to rupee returns, but in some years it strengthens and reduces them. Conversion fees and the bank's exchange-rate margin are a cost on the way in and out. Figures on this page are in US dollars.

Many international investors also use Ireland-domiciled UCITS ETFs listed in London or Europe. Commonly cited differences: US dividends inside an Irish fund are generally withheld at 15% at the fund level (versus 25% on a US-listed ETF for Indian residents), and Irish-domiciled funds are generally not treated as US assets for US estate tax for non-US persons. US-listed ETFs are usually cheaper, larger and far more liquid. Availability depends on your broker. Tax treatment can change — confirm with a tax professional.

No. Many international brokers allow fractional shares, so even US$10–50 can buy part of an ETF priced at hundreds of dollars. Without fractional shares, a small amount may buy one share only every few purchases — the Portfolio Simulator shows this when the "fractional shares" box is unticked. Check each broker's minimum order, commission and currency-conversion fee, which matter more for small amounts.

Very aggressive aims at the highest long-run growth the model allows: 95% in equities and 5% in gold from a 5-year goal (85% equities, 5% bonds and 10% gold for 3–5 years), with a US large-growth slot (Nasdaq-100 and US growth ETFs) and larger emerging-market and factor shares. Expect the deepest falls of the four levels — 30–50% in a severe bear market — and years of waiting to recover.

• Past return of this mix: today's ETFs held in today's weights over the last 1, 3 and 5 years (dividends reinvested) — a description of the past, not a forecast.
• Historical model estimate: for equities, the average of the index's earnings yield plus 2.5 points of long-run growth and the ETF's own 5-year record (kept between 3% and 12%), after costs; bonds and Treasury bills use their current yield; gold 5%.
• After-tax value: your amount and frequency over the goal's years at that estimate, after the dividend tax and, for resident Indians, 12.5% (+ cess) on gains held 24 months or more and 30% on newer purchases; inside Japan's NISA gains are tax-free; NRIs see the value before tax in their country. "Today's money" removes 2.5% a year of US-dollar inflation.

"Compare every risk level" shows the same figures for all four levels side by side. Higher estimates come with deeper falls; none of these figures is a promise.

Yes — six of the simulated team members follow a yearly pay rule on one account each, so the Simulator Buy also shows how extra money and rising contributions change a long-term plan.

• Year-end bonus: the agent receives a bonus of ₹20,000 (US$240 on the Global ETF page, at the simulator's ₹10,000 = US$120 rate) on 31 December and adds all of it to the first regular buy dated in January. That buy is split across the model portfolio like any other; the other buys of the year are unchanged. The bonus repeats every year.
• Salary hike (step-up): the agent gets a salary hike at the end of every year and, from the first buy of January, raises the regular buy by 10% of the original monthly (or weekly) amount — a fixed step each year, not compounding — rounded to ₹10 (US$1). There is no bonus and no extra lump sum.

None of these agents holds a dip reserve. On the India pages Arjun is the only monthly agent without one, so the weekly agents Aswin, Vishnu and Sanal follow the same rules on their weekly buys; Govind and Nithin have no dip reserve on the Global ETF page. Buys placed before January 2027 are unchanged, every amount is recorded in the ledger and the daily audit recomputes it from these rules. The profile of each agent (tap the name in the Simulator Buy card) states the rule.

A yearly step-up is a common habit: it keeps the plan in line with income and adds much more over 10+ years than the same plan at a fixed amount. This is a simulation for education, not advice.

They are derivatives — contracts whose value comes from another asset such as an index or an ETF. A future is an agreement to buy or sell at a fixed price on a set date; gains and losses are settled every day. An option gives the buyer the right, but not the duty, to buy (call) or sell (put) at a fixed price until expiry, for an upfront price called the premium. Both are leveraged: a small amount of money controls a much larger position, so prices of the contracts move several times faster than the ETF itself, and they expire.

• Leverage cuts both ways — a 2% move in the index can mean a 20–50% gain or loss on the contract; futures and sold options can lose more than the money you put in.
• Time works against option buyers — an option loses value every day as expiry nears (time decay), so you must be right on direction, size and timing.
• Costs and spreads are larger relative to the money involved, and frequent trading adds tax and charges.
• The evidence: India's market regulator SEBI found that about 93% of individual F&O traders lost money between FY2022 and FY2024. Studies in other markets show similar results for retail traders.
• Behaviour: fast-moving positions encourage over-trading and emotional decisions — the opposite of a long-term plan.

For long-term wealth, a low-cost, diversified ETF portfolio held for years has a far better record. Learn derivatives only with money you can afford to lose, after the core portfolio is in place.

Professionals sometimes hedge with options on broad ETFs such as SPY or QQQ. The common structures:

• Protective put — buy a put option below today's price (for example 10% lower, 3–6 months out). If the market falls further, the put gains and offsets part of the loss. It works like insurance: the premium (often 1–3% for a few months) is lost if the market does not fall, so doing it all the time costs a lot over the years.
• Collar — buy a put and pay for it by selling a call above today's price. The downside is limited, but so is the upside.
• Covered call — sell a call against ETF shares you own to earn the premium. It adds income in flat markets but caps gains in a rally and gives little protection in a big fall.
• Size the hedge — the number of contracts must match the value and beta of what you hold (one US equity option usually covers 100 shares).

For most long-term investors, simpler tools protect better and cost nothing: the right asset mix (bonds, T-bills and gold alongside equities), diversification across regions, an emergency fund so you never sell in a crash, and rebalancing once a year. That is how this Portfolio Simulator manages risk — it never uses derivatives. Note: resident Indians generally cannot use money sent abroad under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme for margin or derivatives trading, and many brokers outside the US restrict US options for retail clients — check the rules where you live.

Algo trading means a computer program places orders automatically when pre-set rules are met — for example "buy when the 20-day average crosses above the 50-day average" — instead of a person clicking each order. Large institutions use algorithms mainly to split big orders and reduce trading costs; high-frequency firms trade in microseconds.

• Regulation: in India, SEBI's framework for retail algo trading (rolled out from 2025) lets investors run algorithms only through their broker's approved channel — each algo is identified to the exchange, and algo providers must be empanelled with the exchanges. In the US and Japan, algorithms run through a broker's API under that broker's risk controls.
• Risks: strategies that looked great in back-tests often fail live (over-fitting), a coding error or bad data can place wrong orders in seconds, and costs add up with frequent trades.
• Scams: be very careful with apps, Telegram groups or "bots" promising guaranteed or fixed monthly returns — regulators repeatedly warn about them.

VilfinTV does not offer algo trading. The screeners and simulators here use transparent rules to calculate and rank — they never place orders.

See the NISA guide for Japan residents section above for the full details: the two quotas, the lifetime limit and how it is reused, which products qualify for each quota, how US-listed ETFs and dividends are treated, what happens to losses, and what happens if you move abroad.

No. VilfinTV is a free educational platform and is not a SEBI-registered investment adviser or research analyst. Modes and rankings describe past prices and do not predict future returns. Research every ETF and consult a qualified adviser for your situation.